Work back from your revenue target to find your estimated media budget.

Input your target ARR and a few pipeline metrics to back into your media budget and lead targets.

Your budget.

$625Ka year in paid media, about $52K a month, to book $1.98M of new ARR through marketing. That is 31.6% of the ARR it brings in.

The funnel it takes.

Leads

4,168

At $150 each

MQLs40% of leads

1,667

$375 per MQL

SQLs30% of MQLs

500

$1,250 per SQL

Opportunities50% of SQLs

250

$2,501 per opportunity

Closed-won20% of opportunities

$12,504 per customer

Each stage rounds up to a whole number. Costs are paid media only; they leave out salaries, tools and agency fees.

Where the new ARR comes from

ARR today$7,000,000

Churn at 10%−$700,000

Expansion at 8%+$560,000

Kept at year end (98% net retention)$6,860,000

Gap to $10,000,000$3,140,000

New ARR lost to churn before year end+$153,839

New ARR to book$3,293,839

Marketing's 60%$1,976,303

That is 50 new customers at $40,000.

When the money goes out

Before the year startsMonths 1 to 12

A deal that signs in month 1 started as a lead 4 months earlier. To close evenly through the year, spend starts 4 months before it: $208K of the $625K goes out before month 1. Spend for this target stops after month 8; anything spent after that builds next year's pipeline.

Unit costs.

Cost per MQL$3751,667 MQLs from 4,168 leads.

Cost per opportunity$2,501250 opportunities for sales to work.

Media cost per customer$12,504Media cost covered by 3.8 months of contract revenue.

Lifetime revenue to media cost32×A customer stays about 10 years at 10% annual churn, worth $400K in revenue. Media cost only; margin and other acquisition costs are left out.